Buying in Providence Village, TX (76227): What the Listings Don’t Reconcile

Redfin’s town-boundary figure puts the median sale price at $275,835 as of May 2026, down 13.1% year over year. Orchard’s rolling 30-day figure, pulled in the same window, shows $335,000, up 5.5% year over year. Both are real MLS-derived numbers; they disagree because Providence Village sells only 30 to 60 homes in a typical month, small enough that a handful of high or low closings swing a monthly median by tens of thousands of dollars, and because “last 30 days” and “last full month” are not the same window. Price per square foot runs $172 to $176 across trackers, and homes are selling close to asking, at a 97.18% sale-to-list ratio.

Governance: Who Provides Police, Fire, and Town Services

providence village town hall

Providence Village incorporated as a Type A general-law municipality in 2010, then converted to a home-rule charter in a 2015 election that passed 92% to 8%. It has never operated its own police or fire department. The town contracts with the City of Aubrey for fire, EMS, hazmat, and rescue service, and partners with the Aubrey Police Department for law enforcement. Aubrey PD is a 37-officer department, accredited by the Texas Police Chiefs Association in February 2021, covering Aubrey, Providence Village, and several neighboring subdivisions under one roof.

For a buyer, this matters more than it sounds: response times, staffing levels, and department priorities are set in Aubrey, not in Providence Village’s own town hall, and the town’s tax rate reflects a contracted-services structure rather than a full municipal payroll.

Is Providence Village its own police department?
No. The town partners with the City of Aubrey, which provides a 37-officer, state-accredited department covering both cities and several nearby subdivisions.

The Market Right Now

providence village homes for sale

The two headline medians above sit inside a wider spread once new construction is separated from resale. Active new-construction listings carried a median list price of $357,000 in June 2026, roughly $80,000 above the resale medians, a builder-pricing gap rather than a market-direction signal.

Metric Figure As of Source
Median sale price, town boundary, all home types $275,835 (−13.1% YoY) May 2026 Redfin
Median sale price, 30-day rolling window $335,000 (+5.5% YoY) Pulled mid-2026 Orchard
Median price per square foot $172.04 (−6.2% YoY) Pulled mid-2026 Orchard
Sale-to-list ratio 97.18% Pulled mid-2026 Orchard
Median days on market 31.67 Pulled mid-2026 Orchard
New-construction active median list price $357,000 ($182/sqft) June 2026 Movoto

market data comparison

A buyer comparing two listings this month should ask which window and which home type produced the number on the page: a 30-day resale median and a rolling 12-month figure can differ by $50,000 or more without the underlying market having moved at all.

Schools and the Fish Trap Road Line

Fish Trap Road splits school assignment inside Providence Village. North of the road, children attend Aubrey ISD: Monaco Elementary, then Aubrey Middle, then Aubrey High School. South of the road, they attend Denton ISD: Providence Elementary, then Rodriguez Middle, then Ray Braswell High School.

District Campus Grades Most recent rating Zoning
Aubrey ISD Monaco Elementary PK-5 District: B (2022-23) North of Fish Trap Rd
Aubrey ISD Aubrey Middle 6-8 District: B (2022-23) North of Fish Trap Rd
Aubrey ISD Aubrey High School 9-12 State rank fell from 266th of 1,743 (2014-15) to 891st of 1,974 (2024-25) North of Fish Trap Rd
Denton ISD Providence Elementary / Rodriguez Middle PK-5 / 6-8 District: B, 80/100 (2025), up from C, 78/100 (2023) South of Fish Trap Rd
Denton ISD Ray Braswell High School 9-12 Campus: B (2023) fell to C (2025) South of Fish Trap Rd

Sources: Aubrey ISD, SchoolDigger, Cross Timbers Gazette’s report on the 2025 TEA accountability results.

The district-level trend and the flagship high-school trend move in opposite directions on the Denton ISD side: the district’s overall grade improved between 2023 and 2025, while Ray Braswell High School specifically dropped a letter grade in the same period. A family zoned to Braswell is buying into a campus trend that runs counter to the district average, something a district-level rating alone would hide.

Which side of town feeds into Aubrey ISD vs. Denton ISD?
Fish Trap Road is the line. North of it is Aubrey ISD; south of it is Denton ISD.

HOAs: Why Dues and Amenities Vary by Street

providence village hoa map

Providence Village is not governed by one homeowners’ association. The town’s own resource directory lists at least three separately administered HOAs, plus a public improvement district that is not an HOA at all: Providence HOA, the original section, managed by RealManage Elevated Onsite with monthly board meetings at the main clubhouse; Foree Ranch HOA, managed by Legacy Southwest Property Management; and Heritage Landing at Providence Village HOA. A fourth entity, the Foree Ranch Public Improvement District, is a bond-financed infrastructure assessment administered separately by Municap and billed alongside, not instead of, the Foree Ranch HOA’s own dues.

foree ranch pid document

Current dues figures for these associations are not published in a form that allows a clean, verifiable side-by-side comparison. An older figure for one section exists but predates the current market by well over a decade, so it is left out rather than reused as if current.

HOA / district Administrator Covers Current dues
Providence HOA RealManage Elevated Onsite Main clubhouse, two waterparks, sports courts, community events Not publicly posted for verification
Foree Ranch HOA Legacy Southwest Property Management Foree Ranch section amenities Not publicly posted for verification
Foree Ranch PID Municap Bond-financed infrastructure, billed separately from HOA dues Not publicly posted; confirm at title
Heritage Landing at Providence Village HOA Resident portal managed via Creek Bluff Heritage Landing section governance Not publicly posted for verification

A buyer under contract on a Foree Ranch address should confirm both the HOA dues and the separate PID assessment at title, since the second charge is easy to miss if it isn’t asked about by name.

Why do HOA fees vary so much within the same town?
Because Providence Village has no single master association. At least three HOAs and one public improvement district operate independently, each covering a different section with its own amenities and its own fee schedule.

Getting Around

us highway 380 traffic

There is no public transit serving Providence Village. The mean commute is 43.4 minutes, about one and a half times the 27.9-minute Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro average, and residents reach it almost entirely by car via US-380 or FM 2931.

Flood Risk and Other Physical Realities

lake providence flood zone

Providence Village sits around a namesake lake with several drainage branches running through the community. Parcel-level flood-zone data for the town is not yet published: Redfin’s own hazard panel states it is still working on accurate flood-risk figures for this city, though it does report wildfire risk under 1% over a 30-year window and minimal severe-wind risk.

Because flood-zone status depends on the specific parcel, not the town as a whole, a buyer on a lake-adjacent or drainage-branch lot should run the address directly through FEMA’s Map Service Center before writing an offer, rather than relying on a town-wide risk label that doesn’t yet exist for this location.

Do homes near Lake Providence carry real flood risk?
Town-wide flood data for Providence Village isn’t published yet. Check the specific parcel through FEMA’s Map Service Center rather than assuming a lakeside lot is automatically high-risk or automatically safe.

Crime and Safety, With Real Numbers

crime statistics chart

A Providence Village resident’s odds of being a victim of violent crime run about 1 in 475, and of property crime about 1 in 91, for a combined overall odds of about 1 in 76, based on FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data for 2024, released in September 2025. A separate analysis puts the town’s overall crime rate at 7 incidents per 1,000 residents, lower than about 65% of Texas communities of any size. Neither figure is a promotional estimate; both trace to FBI-reported data rather than an unsourced dashboard number.

Property Taxes: County, School, and Town Rates Combined

denton county tax bill

Denton County’s own FY2025-26 budget statement describes its $0.185938-per-$100 rate as roughly 10% of a typical property tax bill. The other 90% comes from the school district and the town-level Water Control and Improvement District rate, and those two layers differ depending on which ISD side of Fish Trap Road a property sits on.

Taxing entity Aubrey ISD side Denton ISD side What it funds
Providence Village WCID / town $0.474743 $0.474743 Town services, contracted police and fire
School district $1.224900 (Aubrey ISD) $1.206900 (Denton ISD) School operations and debt
Denton County $0.185938 $0.185938 County services, about 10% of the total bill
Total per $100 valuation $1.885581 $1.867581

Source: Old Republic Title’s 2025 DFW property tax rate guide.

property tax rate breakdown

The Aubrey ISD side runs about 1.8 cents higher per $100 than the Denton ISD side, roughly $72 a year on a $400,000 assessed value: small, but worth weighing alongside the school-rating gap covered above.

Is the county’s $0.186 rate what shows up on my tax bill?
No. It’s about 10% of the total. The school district and the town/WCID rate make up the rest, and together they roughly quadruple the county’s share.

Town population and household-income figures for Providence Village conflict across public sources for a reason unrelated to data quality: some describe the incorporated town, others describe ZIP code 76227, which extends well past the town into unincorporated Denton County and Aubrey. Census-sourced figures put the town’s population at 8,721 (2019-2023 ACS five-year estimate) and median household income at $110,430 for 2024, up from $105,469 the year before. A separate, USPS-and-Census-sourced estimate puts the entire ZIP code’s population at roughly 47,000, about five to six times the town figure. Any statistic labeled “Providence Village” without specifying town or ZIP should be treated as ambiguous until that distinction is confirmed.

Who Providence Village Suits (and Who It Doesn’t)

family in front of house

A young family prioritizing parks and pools over commute time is well served here, provided they confirm the specific HOA section and ISD side of any address before assuming either applies townwide. A remote worker removes the single biggest tradeoff on this list: the 43-minute average commute. A buyer assuming one townwide HOA fee and one uniform school rating is working from the wrong model; both vary block to block, as shown above. A retiree or a buyer prioritizing a short drive to central Dallas or Fort Worth will find the commute here harder to justify than in a closer-in suburb.

For Investors: What’s Published and What Isn’t

new construction homes

Independently sourced rental-yield, price-per-bedroom, and new-construction-share figures for Providence Village were not found during research for this page. A figure exists on at least one real-estate data site, but it carries no named methodology or source, so it is not repeated here; an investor should request underwriting-grade numbers directly from a local broker rather than relying on an unattributed dashboard figure. What is verifiable: sale-to-list ratios near 97% indicate limited negotiating room on well-priced homes, and 99.4% of the housing stock is detached single-family, meaning this market offers little exposure to condo or multifamily product for an investor seeking that mix.

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