Why the Median Price Depends on Which Data Source You Trust
Larkspur’s price figures vary by source because each measures a different stage of the transaction, on a small sample. Homes.com reports a trailing-12-month median sale price of $1,900,000, down 9% year over year, on a 30-day median days-on-market. That sits half a million dollars above Redfin’s monthly closed-sale figure, despite both claiming to measure the same thing: closed transactions.
| Source | What it measures | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zillow ZHVI | Modeled “typical” home value across the stock | $2,136,104 (−7.1% YoY) | current |
| Redfin | Median closed-sale price | $1.4M (−31.5% YoY, 11 sales) | most recent month |
| Homes.com | Median closed-sale price, trailing 12 months | $1,900,000 (−9% YoY) | trailing 12 mo. |
| Movoto | Median list price | $1.53M ($859/sqft) | June 2026 |
Redfin’s and Homes.com’s sold-price figures diverge by roughly $500,000 despite both being sold-side data. That gap, not any single headline number, is the clearest sign that Larkspur’s sales volume is too thin for a citywide monthly median to be trusted alone. A serious buyer or seller needs a trailing 90-day window at minimum, and ideally a same-street comparison pulled from an agent’s live MLS access, in place of a portal’s citywide figure for one month.
Is the median home price in Larkspur based on closed sales or active listings? It depends which source you’re reading. Zillow’s figure is a modeled estimate, Redfin and Homes.com report actual closed sales and disagree with each other by roughly $500,000, and Movoto reports active list prices, which run below closed prices in a market where homes are selling above asking.
Larkspur’s Geography and Neighborhoods
Larkspur splits roughly along Highway 101: hillside and canyon streets climbing toward Mount Tamalpais on the west side, and flatter, bay-adjacent blocks, including the Larkspur Landing ferry district, on the east side. No independent, publicly available source publishes Larkspur’s median sale price broken out by neighborhood. Any page, including this one, that states a specific per-block price range without a named source is estimating. A same-street comparative market analysis from a licensed agent with live MLS access is the only reliable way to price a specific address here.
Schools
Larkspur sits within the Larkspur-Corte Madera School District for elementary and middle grades, with high school served by the Tamalpais Union High School District. This section is intentionally short: this pass did not locate an independently sourced, dated ranking or enrollment figure worth repeating here, so the district names stand alone rather than being padded with unsourced claims.
Commute: Ferry and Highway 101
The Golden Gate Ferry’s Larkspur-to-San-Francisco route is a roughly 30-minute crossing, with one-way fares in the $7 to $14 range as of this writing. Check Golden Gate Ferry’s route schedule for current times and fares, since both change. Highway 101 is the other primary route south to San Francisco and north through Marin.
How long is the ferry commute from Larkspur to San Francisco? About 30 minutes each way on the Golden Gate Ferry, plus walking or transit time on either end.
What It Costs to Own: Property Taxes and Fees
A new Larkspur buyer should budget an effective property tax rate of roughly 1.0% to 1.25% of the purchase price in the first year, not the county-wide 0.72% average that gets quoted most often; that lower figure is an average across all owners, including longtime residents whose Proposition 13 assessed values have been capped at 2% annual growth for decades and no longer reflect what a new buyer pays. This is the one place this page draws that distinction; the numbers below assume the new-buyer rate.
| Cost type | Applies to | Typical range or note |
|---|---|---|
| Prop 13 base rate | Every CA property | 1% of assessed value, statewide |
| Local bonds and Tax Rate Area additions | Varies by parcel | Marin has 368 Tax Rate Areas; additions push the effective rate to roughly 1.0% to 1.25% |
| Homeowners’ Exemption | Owner-occupied primary residence | $7,000 off assessed value; file BOE-266 by February 15 |
| County transfer tax | Every sale, one-time | $1.10 per $1,000 of price, typically split buyer/seller |
| Supplemental tax bill | New owners | One-time, prorated bill covering the gap between the seller’s old assessed value and the buyer’s purchase price; arrives separately |
The supplemental bill is the line item that catches first-time Bay Area buyers off guard: it is not folded into the first year’s regular tax bill, it arrives on its own timeline, and it is calculated on the full jump from the prior owner’s assessed value to the new purchase price.
Buyers 55 or older, severely disabled, or rebuilding after a declared disaster can transfer their existing Prop 13 base year value to a replacement home anywhere in California under Proposition 19, administered by the Marin County Assessor-Recorder-County Clerk. This benefit can be used once for a non-disaster move.
Do Mello-Roos or special assessments apply to homes in Larkspur? Marin County’s tax-rate-area system means the answer varies by exact parcel, not by city. Check the preliminary title report or the seller’s disclosure for a specific address rather than assuming a citywide answer.
Environmental Risk: Flood and Wildfire Exposure
Citywide, First Street Foundation data reported through Redfin rates Larkspur as extreme flood risk overall, with 39% of properties (1,421) likely to face severe flooding over the next 30 years, and moderate wildfire risk overall, with 80% of properties (3,546) carrying some wildfire exposure over the same period.
| Hazard | Citywide rating | Scope | Verify at |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood | Extreme; 39% of properties (1,421) at severe risk over 30 yrs | citywide aggregate | FEMA Flood Map Service Center |
| Wildfire | Moderate; 80% of properties (3,546) carry some risk over 30 yrs | citywide aggregate | CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zone Viewer |
| Extreme heat | Moderate; 77% of homes affected, +128% more days over 84°F over 30 yrs | citywide aggregate | – |
| Severe wind | Minimal | citywide aggregate | – |
These are citywide aggregates, not a reading for any specific parcel; a hillside canyon lot and a bayfront Larkspur Landing unit carry very different profiles within that same 80%-and-39% citywide figures. Check a specific address at the CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zone Viewer and the FEMA Flood Map Service Center; both are linked from the City of Larkspur’s Maps page.
Is Larkspur at risk of wildfire, flooding, or both? Both, and differently by location: canyon and hillside streets carry more of the wildfire exposure, while low-lying, bay-adjacent blocks near Larkspur Landing carry more of the flood exposure. The citywide aggregate figures don’t tell you which applies to one address.
Larkspur as a Rental Market
Rentcast data, reported through Prop:Metrics, puts Larkspur’s average asking rent at $4,810, down 12.7% year over year, with per-bedroom medians below.
| Unit size | Median asking rent |
|---|---|
| Studio | $2,480 |
| 1 bedroom | $2,610 |
| 2 bedroom | $5,130 |
| 3 bedroom | $9,580 |
| 4 bedroom | $10,000 |
The jump from a 2-bedroom to a 3-bedroom median, nearly double, is sharp enough that it likely reflects a small, skewed sample of larger single-family rentals instead of a smooth market curve; treat the 3- and 4-bedroom rows as directional. Computing a defensible gross rental yield requires a specific unit’s purchase price. This page’s price figures above are citywide medians dominated by single-family sales, not condo comps, so pairing them directly with the rent table would overstate precision this data doesn’t support.
Is Larkspur a good rental market for investors? Absolute rents are high, but gross yield depends entirely on what you pay for the unit; a citywide median purchase price paired with a citywide median rent will not produce a reliable yield for any specific property.
Buyer and Seller Considerations
- Confirm which price you’re reading. A listing agent quoting “the median” should be able to say whether that’s list price, closed price, or a modeled estimate, and over what window.
- Budget the supplemental tax bill separately from the first year’s regular property tax.
- Get a wildfire and flood reading for the specific parcel, not the citywide aggregate, before waiving inspection or insurance contingencies.
- Treat any per-neighborhood price claim as an estimate until confirmed by a same-street comparative market analysis.
Sellers in this market face the same thin-sample volatility buyers do: a single comparable closing above or below trend can move the next listing’s pricing conversation by a meaningful margin.
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